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Mounting pressure on British prime minister Theresa May to leave the customs union could put Anglo-Irish trade ties at risk, it has been reported.

According to the Financial Times, Ms May is being urged to leave the union by her trade secretary Liam Fox so that he will receive maximum freedom to negotiate new trade deals.
As part of the customs union the EU negotiates trade deals with external partners and then sets an identical rate for every member state.

Mr Fox wants the UK to leave the customs union as part of Ms May’s Brexit strategy. The trade secretary believes the union has stifled trade agreements in the past.
The UK leaving the customs union could be bad news for Ireland as the Treasury warned of customs control and increased administrative costs for goods coming in from the North.

Mr Fox urged the prime minister to leave the union yesterday where he said the UK has nothing to fear from breaking out.
Whether or not to leave the trade union remains a key point of the UK’s exit strategy from the EU and it is understood Ms May will decide on the matter before the end of the year.

Quitting the union would not preclude the UK staying within the ESM.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Here are the 10 things we now know about Brexit… that we didn’t know a month ago.

1 Bookies and money markets also get things horribly wrong
Opinion polls were discredited in Britain during the 2015 general election. They predicted a hung parliament, but David Cameron’s Conservatives won an overall majority.

Polls right up to June 23 unconvincingly suggested a narrow win for Remain.
But Remain advocates took more confidence from the bookies, which were offering almost 3/1 for Leave and odds-on for Remain. The money market dealers also predicted a Remain win.

2 Trade

Any school pupil with half an ear open in geography class could tell you Britain is Ireland’s biggest export market. The surprising fact that has emerged is how important the reverse relationship is.

In fact, Britain sells more to Ireland than its combined exports to China, India, Brazil and Russia. Both countries want to ensure that there are no tariffs or levies. But Ireland is legally prevented from concluding one-to-one deals with Britain, which must deal with the rest of the EU.
3 Theresa May

In Ireland, she was only a vague name in the news. Mr Cameron, who was re-elected in 2015, looked set to be PM for years. We’re going to learn a lot more about hyper-cautious Ms May, a lukewarm Remain supporter, who came through tough leadership jousts to win.
4 Article 50

The EU was like the Hotel California – no one could ever leave. Then Article 50 of the EU Treaty was enacted, providing for a two-year exit time frame.
Britain alone can decide when to trigger this process. Once it has done so, this gives big power to the member states, who must agree the terms of Brexit by ‘super qualified majority’ – 72pc of the remaining member countries, representing 65pc of the EU population.

5 A dis-United Kingdom?
The Brexit result was barely an hour old when there were calls for another independence referendum in Scotland, where six out of 10 voted Remain. There have also been calls for a border poll in the North, where 56pc backed Remain.

In England, the north and midlands carried a Leave vote, which also won in Wales.
We may be looking at a major realignment of relations in these islands, complicating what Ireland is trying to achieve. But London keeps stressing that it was a “UK referendum” and now requires a “UK deal”.

6 Ireland’s post-Brexit aims

These are easier to state than to achieve. Dublin wants to help keep Britain in the single market. That is hard to do because Britain is refusing to agree continued free movement of EU citizens – which is a fundamental principle for the others.
Ireland also wants to keep the Common Travel Area, which has been in force since the 1920s. We need to ensure no return of customs or identity controls on the 300-mile border between Dundalk and Derry.

The border risks becoming a de facto EU-UK frontier. A bilateral arrangement between Dublin and London is not possible.

7 Tensions in the North
Arlene Foster took over as Northern Ireland’s First Minister last January. It was assumed that tensions between herself and Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness would be defused over a relatively short time.

Then the Brexit result landed as something very unhelpful from the outside. DUP leader Ms Foster was a Leave supporter, who now insists that the North, which voted 56pc to Remain, must abide by “a UK result”.

Mr McGuinness insists that the North cannot be further divided from the Republic by exiting the EU.
8 Power struggles in Brussels

Back in 2009, when Article 50 came into force, a new post of President of the European Council was created. It was styled as the permanent chairperson of the EU leaders’ summit.

But now the person holding that office, Donald Tusk of Poland, has emerged as a potential lead figure in Brexit proceedings.

This has dismayed Jean-Claude Juncker and his colleagues in the policy-guiding Commission, who believe it is their job.

9 Everyday life

The Taoiseach has revealed that there are 500 EU-funded education partnerships between Irish and British colleges. Mr Kenny has said that already the EU Commission has been warning about funding when Brexit kicks in.
People availing of their EU right to medical treatment in another member state may have to travel further to countries where the language and culture are rather different. Post-Brexit, the EU scheme will not apply in the UK.

10 Holiday homes

The Brexit impact on the value of Irish holiday homes on the Mediterranean is also uncertain.
Pensioners are by far the biggest group among the 1.3 million UK citizens in other EU states. While nothing changes for at least two years, UK overseas pensioners are fretful about health entitlements and standards of living.

If they sell up in large numbers, many Irish holiday home owners could see the prices of their properties plummet.

The number of UK buyers in the Irish property market has also been significant in recent years, but with the Sterling plunging, this will surely change.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

The Central Bank has revised down its growth projections for the Irish economy this year and next year on the back of Brexit.

Irish GDP growth will be 0.2 percentage points lower this year than initially thought, and 0.6 percentage points lower next year.But it is still forecasting strong growth of 4.9pc in 2016 and 3.6pc in 2017.
In its latest quarterly economic bulletin, the first since the UK referendum vote, the Central Bank said that in the short and medium term, the economic impact of Brexit on Ireland is set to be “negative and material”.But it added quantifying the effect with precision is difficult.

“Qualitatively, however, both in the short run and longer term, Brexit is likely to adversely affect the Irish economy,” the Central Bank said.
It also referred to the recent GDP data for 2015 from the CSO, which showed GDP grew by a massive 26pc last year, with the surge attributed to the activities of Ireland’s multinational sector.

The Central Bank said the National Accounts data seriously misrepresents the overall growth of domestic economic activity in Ireland.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

The Central Bank is planning an €8.5 million revamp of its south Dublin currency centre to modernise the complex and boost security.

The Sandyford-based facility was constructed in the late 1970s and was designed to house the printing facility for Irish currency notes.
At the time, architect Sam Stephenson was awarded the Royal Institute of the Architects of Ireland’s Gold Medal for a building of outstanding merit.

But now the Central Bank is undertaking a so-called Strategic Security Upgrade project to bring the operation in line with “current best practice for installations of this kind”.
That includes building a new security control room and upgrading monitoring operations, as well as constructing new outbuildings, and a toughening of the buildings on the campus.

The full project budget is estimated to be around €8.5m.
The Currency Centre is listed as the second highest security complex in the State, employing around 200 people.

It has a permanent garda and army presence on site.
The Central Bank is looking for an architect-led design team to undertake the refurbishment, but given the high level of security, the members of the team will have to undergo garda vetting before starting the work.

Work will include the construction of a new security control room and the associated installation of a new “state of the art” electronic control and monitoring systems, with video analytics.
A new goods building and maintenance storage facility will also be built, along with a new two-storey reception, office and checkpoint building complete with an x-ray machine, a search room, meeting rooms and rooms for the gardai and army.

The car park and roads will be improved in such a way to make the compound more secure,
For example, new entrances will be developed, along with bollards and high security fences.

The various buildings will also be physically hardened, the Central Bank said. A spokeswoman for the Central Bank said the organisation was “seeking expressions of interest for a range of services to maintain the buildings and infrastructure that supports the operations at the Currency Centre, including traffic management, office premises, and security infrastructure.
“The development is part of the Central Bank’s regular and ongoing programme of maintaining its buildings and infrastructure.”

The Irish Independent reported last week that the Central Bank is to put its current headquarters on Dame Street – which was also designed by Sam Stephenson – and two other premises on Dublin’s College Green on the market in the coming months.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Cash buyers are dominating the housing market, with new figures showing that the proportion of such buyers has shot up – they now account for six out of 10 house and apartment purchases.

Experts said that this indicated a highly dysfunctional market, something the Government is hoping its new housing and homeless strategy will address.
The number of cash buyers has remained consistent since the crash, but there has been a big drop-off in the number of mortgage buyers, as they have been squeezed from 2008, since the bubble burst in the housing market.

This means the proportion of cash buyers has shot up to 60pc of purchases in 2014, the new figures from Central Bank economists show.
During the housing boom, just 25pc of purchasers were able to buy without a mortgage. But now the wealthy and institutional investors are dominating the residential property market.

Read more: One in eight gets exemption from Central Bank’s lending limits
Read more: Renters promised more protection but ‘nightmare tenants’ face eviction

The high proportion of cash buyers is also due to difficulties that ordinary home buyers have in getting approval for mortgages due to banks tightening lending, job losses, pay cuts and Central Bank lending restrictions.
The strong position of cash buying is also attributed to high numbers of speculators buying so-called distressed property assets, properties where the borrowers have defaulted on the loan.

Commenters have also pointed out that the ‘bank of mum and dad’ plays a big role, where wealthy parents are financing the purchasing of homes for their children.
An academic paper from three Central Bank economists shows there has been a sharp fall in the numbers getting mortgages since the crash.

During the boom, only one-quarter of purchasers were able to buy without a mortgage.
The number of transactions has fallen markedly in recent years, from a peak of 150,000. Purchases fell to a low of just 21,000 in 2010.

Since that year, the overall number of cash transactions has not increased much, the academic paper found.
The fact that the overall number of such transactions has remained relatively steady means that the share of transactions made up by cash buyers has risen sharply. At the same time there has been a dramatic fall in mortgage draw-downs since the financial crisis.

Sales
Central Bank economist Dermot Coates said the proportion of the market now accounted for by cash buyers was neither sustainable nor “likely to continue into the future”.

He added that a pick-up in construction combined with a rise in mortgage lending would see cash transactions as a proportion of the overall market fall back to more normal levels.

The report states: “Whilst it is true that cash sales have been a feature of this market for many years, in more recent times we have seen a greater role being played by institutional and international investors including acquisitions by speculative international asset management groups.”
John McCartney, the director of research at estate agency Savills, said the lack of construction and lending limits meant that fewer people were obtaining a mortgage.

He said the level of overall transactions had fallen from 150,000 in 2006 to just 49,000 last year.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Property firm Hibernia REIT has said it is too early to predict the impact Britain’s departure from the European Union will have on Dublin’s real estate market.

This morning Hibernia announced it had leased the remaining 30,000 sq ft of One Dockland Central to Comreg at an average rent of €50 per sq ft.
However, chief executive Kevin Nowlan is wary on predicting potential change in the market from Brexit.

“It is too early to see any discernible impact, positive or negative, on the occupational and investment markets in Dublin following the EU referendum result in the UK,” he said.
The property boss said the company’s low gearing and talented workforce should leave it in a position to capitalise on upcoming opportunities.

Hibernia recently acquired blocks one, two and five of Clanwilliam Court adding to its longer-term development pipeline. Over the last quarter the company also increased its contracted rent roll.
The real estate firm has acquired full planning for the second phase of its redevelopment of Harcourt Square, which totals 142,500 sq ft.

Over the last quarter Hibernia disposed of eight units from the Dorville non-core portfolio – to be sold for a total of €2.1m.
Mr Nowlan said he’s pleased by the company’s performance in the last three months.

“We are pleased with our progress in the quarter – our committed development schemes remain on schedule and the purchase of blocks one, two and five Clanwilliam Court is an exciting addition to our longer term development pipeline and, together with the letting to ComReg announced today, increases our contracted rent roll to over €43m.”

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Shopping centre landlord Hammerson said the impact of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union on property valuations was still unknown, but the lettings and investment markets were facing a period of uncertainty.

The company, which partly owns the Brent Cross Shopping Centre in London, said its external valuers had said that the probability of their valuations exactly matching the price achieved if Hammerson sold its assets had reduced after the Brexit vote.
Concerns have risen that prices for commercial properties may fall after the vote, with some investors worried that international retailers and banks may move some operations to other EU locations, hurting demand for property.

Lawyers and brokers have told Reuters that buyers, predominantly private equity players, were managing to secure “Brexit discounts” on property of up to 10pc since the vote, as some sellers agree to let go of assets for less.
Hammerson’s shares have lost about 7pc of their value since June 23, the day when Britain voted to leave the EU.

Hammerson, however, said on Monday that demand to rent had stayed strong for high-quality retail property and that it had signed 20 leases for higher-than-estimated rental values after the referendum.
“We have been reassured by the level of leasing and investment activity post the EU referendum… highlighting continued appetite for high-quality retail property,” Chief Executive David Atkins said in a statement.

The company’s adjusted profit, which best reflects earnings and excludes changes in valuations, rose 6pc to 112.6 million pounds in the six months ended June 30.
Hammerson intended to pursue a secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange by early September to ensure that it has access to a “wider pool” of international capital, the company said.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

The vast majority of Irish people want a referendum on the proposed US-EU free trade deal if it looks like it could become law, a survey suggests.

They also want a similar poll on Europe’s planned trade agreement with Canada, according to the survey carried out by Red C.
The survey was commissioned by lobby group Uplift, which has campaigned against the US agreement.

Talks on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a sweeping US-European free trade deal, started three years ago – but the two sides have been unable to settle differences over various issues, including agriculture.
The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the EU has also taken years to negotiate, and could come into force next year.

Uplift commissioned Red C to conduct a poll on public attitudes in Ireland towards certain potential aspects of both the TTIP and CETA trade agreements, with a random sample of 1,004 adults across the country interviewed by telephone earlier this month.

Young people aged between 18 and 24 are the most sceptical of the two proposed trade agreements, and are most in favour of a referendum to accept or reject them.

They’re also the age group most in favour of EU standards not being changed to match US or Canadian standards.

Siobhan O’ Donoghue, Uplift director, said that if passed into law, TTIP and CETA will affect every Irish citizen “in ways never imagined before”.
“A referendum on TTIP and CETA would balance the power of corporations and put the decision on the future of our democracy in the hands that matter – the people,” Ms O’Donoghue said.

In June, Uplift started an online signature campaign to urge Taoiseach Enda Kenny to call a referendum on the two trade agreements.
Members of the group also campaigned outside Leinster House last year, warning that the proposed agreement threatened “to increase the power of multinationals at the expense of people, democracy and the planet”.

It argues that the Government is only serving the needs of big business.
However, a report commissioned by the Government said TTIP will boost the economy and trade, and help create thousands of jobs.

TTIP is primarily an agreement to cut tariffs and regulatory barriers to trade between the US and EU countries, but has encountered opposition from some quarters across Europe, including trade unions.

The US government said last week that it is committed to concluding the deal this year and believes it is even more essential after the Brexit vote in the UK.

According to the survey, 69pc of adults state that they would be concerned if TTIP or CETA were to be agreed as they don’t know enough about the ramifications.
The Irish Independent recently published for and against opinions from Chambers Ireland chief Ian Talbot and Unite economist Michael Taft.

Mr Talbot argued that the proposed deal represented an unprecedented opportunity for two of the world’s biggest economies to remove barriers to trade, increase growth and create jobs.

But Mr Taft said it would “debase democracy” and would give global corporations legal privilege over citizens and governments.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Central banks from Washington to Tokyo take centre stage next week, although policymakers are likely to remain cautious as they wait for the dust to settle from Britain’s shock vote to leave the European Union.

As they wait for political reassurances and greater clarity over the likely impact of the move, central banks have mostly avoided action since the Brexit referendum, calming jittery markets with verbal assurances but leaving the burden on governments to chart a path.
Indeed, the US Federal Reserve is all but certain to keep interest rates on hold this Wednesday, acknowledging improved economic prospects but offering few hints about its next move, keen to avoid repeating its past mistake of stoking rate hike expectations.

The next move is still seen as an increase in rates. But even as concerns over Brexit ease the US election is drawing closer, likely pushing back action towards the end of the year and possibly limiting the Fed to a single hike in 2016, a far cry from its early-year estimate for four moves. Analysts polled by Reuters also see the next move in the fourth quarter, while futures imply a move closer to mid-2017.
For the Bank of Japan, struggling with low inflation, next Friday’s rate decision will be a close call – with markets simmering with speculation that it will have to ease policy.

It is likely to cut its inflation forecasts but only slightly, which may allow the bank to justify ‘standing pat’ for the time being.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Business confidence across the island dropped “dramatically” in the first half of the year, as firms awaited the outcome of the UK referendum, a survey shows.

The latest Global Economic Conditions Survey for the second quarter, from the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, shows a dip in confidence across the OECD linked to the Brexit referendum.
In Ireland, around 100 firms were surveyed from both Northern Ireland and the Republic. But the survey was carried out in the first three weeks of June, ahead of the referendum in the UK on June 23.

“There has been a dramatic drop in business confidence in Ireland over the past two quarters, even though its economy continues to grow at a breakneck pace,” the report states.
“Ireland’s trade links with the UK are stronger than those of any other Eurozone economy. The report noted that any downturn in the UK will be felt heavily in Ireland.

Liz Hughes, head of ACCA mainland Europe and Ireland, said the UK’s decision to leave the European Union will be felt globally for the foreseeable future with Ireland being at the forefront of those implications.
“It is our expectation that business sentiment will fall again in Q3 and depending on policy responses and other factors such as leadership and EU decisions, potentially extend into the fourth quarter,” Ms Hughes said.

“The potential for long-term uncertainty as the UK negotiates its complex departure from the European Union could weigh down on global confidence for some time to come.”
Globally, the survey found that business confidence picked up in the second quarter compared with the four-year low in the first three months of the year. The number of firms that said their prospects had deteriorated over the past three months fell to 43pc in the second quarter, from 48pc in the early part of the year.

Meanwhile polls by Reuters showed that confidence in prospects for the global economy has been dented following the Brexit vote.
And there is a growing view that monetary policy is a fading force and many governments now need to borrow and spend.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42