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The Irish Government needs to be clear and bloody minded on this – if Britain votes to leave the EU, we’ll back their continued access to the single market to the hilt.

Yesterday, Michael Noonan was right to break ranks with his long-time German colleague, Wolfgang Schauble, at a meeting of Euro area ministers in Luxembourg.
Mr Schauble is the hard man of the Eurogroup. He is the nemesis of the unfortunates of Greece. He’s said the UK would be locked out of the common market if it votes to leave the European Union.

There is a logic to that position. The advocates for Britain remaining in the EU, including David Cameron, want to make the decision to leave as uncomfortable as possible for voters. Threatening to block access to the world’s biggest market does that.
It’s why Michael Noonan’s articulation of the Irish position may make uncomfortable reading for the prime minister, especially if it’s seen to persuade some in the UK that a vote to leave isn’t quite the dramatic break being touted.

No matter, we need to be clear in our own position.
From Wolfgang Schauble’s perspective, restricting the benefits of EU membership to paid-up members might make sense. But it doesn’t from ours.

Blockading the Channel would cut off Europe’s nose to spite its face. The UK is a big, dynamic, market. Anyone would want to have it as a trade partner.
For Ireland, it’s even more serious.

Blockading the Irish border, or Irish Sea, would be cutting off our limbs to spite our torso. Michael Noonan broke ranks on Brexit because that’s something we cannot even countenance.
Maintaining trade with Britain is vital to Ireland, regardless of the referendum outcome.

Retaining our two-way trade with Britain, and the shared travel area, are overriding national imperatives for us.
Any attempt by Germany or others to make the terms of a Brexit punitive, if the UK votes to go, have to be resisted forcefully and totally.

Our access to the UK market, their access to ours and the retention of a centuries-old common travel area need to be flagged loud and clear as Irish red lines. We need to be upfront with our partners in Europe that we’ll veto any deal that threatens those interests.
Yesterday’s comments from Michael Noonan are a start. The referendum campaign has a week to go, anything can happen.

But if the vote goes against Europe, we need to be vocal and unembarrassed in the defence of our interests.
Casting the UK out into the cold isn’t one of them.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Blackstone has completed a deal to take over the Blanchardstown Centre in one of the biggest property deals in the history of the state.

The US private equity giant is believed to have paid Green Property at €950m for the centre.
The deal is expected to close this summer pending relevant regulatory approvals.

In a statement, Anthony Myers, Head of European Real Estate at Blackstone, said: “This is a further investment by us in Dublin and underlines our commitment to Ireland and belief in the strength of its economy.”
Blanchardstown Centre is a 1.2 million square foot retail complex comprising over 180 leading stores, together with numerous restaurants and leisure facilities, including a 9-screen cinema. There is capacity for an additional 1.6 million square feet of development across retail, residential, office and leisure. Located in north-western Dublin and linked to Ireland’s major motorways, Blanchardstown Centre is one of Ireland’s most accessible and premier retail destinations and continues to be well placed to serve Dublin and beyond, Blackstone added.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Discount retailer and owner of Dealz is to open 20 new stores in Ireland in the coming year.

Its owner Poundland said that 300,000 Irish customers visit shops every week.
The retailer is opening 20 to 30 net new stores “primarily in the Republic of Ireland and in retail parks” – it already has 53 shops here.

Poundland is subject to a possible takeover bid from South Africa’s Steinhoff, and today reported a 13.5pc fall in underlying full-year profit.
Europe’s biggest single price discounter said it was hurt by subdued trading, adverse currency moves and the distraction of integrating the 99p Stores chain it bought last year.

Steinhoff has bought 23 percent of Poundland and is considering a full cash bid. Poundland has told shareholders to take no action.
Under British takeover rules, Steinhoff has until July 13 to announce a firm intention to bid for all of Poundland.

The retailer, which in the UK sells everything for a pound, made an underlying pretax profit of 37.8 million pounds in the year to March 27.
That was below analysts’ forecasts which ranged from 39.9 million pounds to 51.8 million pounds and was down from 43.7 million pounds in 2014-15.

Underlying sales increased 9.3 percent to 1.21 billion, while, sales at stores open over a year fell 3.9 percent.
Poundland completed the 55 million pounds purchase of the 251-outlet 99p Stores chain in September and has since converted the entire estate to the Poundland format.

Poundland said underlying sales in the 11 weeks to June 11 increased 28.6 percent.
Thursday’s results are the last to be presented by Jim McCarthy, Poundland’s chief executive for the past decade. He retires next month and will be succeeded by former Kingfisher executive Jim McCarthy.

Shares in Poundland closed Wednesday at 200 pence, valuing the business at 534 million pounds.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

The Bank of England has warned it is “increasingly probable” that Brexit could send the pound plunging.

It added that referendum uncertainty is already hitting the housing market as Britons put spending decisions on hold.
Policymakers sounded the alarm once more over the impact on the economy of a vote to leave the EU as they said uncertainty caused by the referendum was seeing delays in “major economic decisions” among households and in the corporate sector.

This is sparking a slowdown in the sale of houses and cars, while, in the corporate sector, commercial real estate transactions and deals are being put on ice, according to the Bank.
The Bank added that the result of the June 23 poll remained the “largest immediate risk” facing financial markets, not just in the UK, but worldwide.

All nine-members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep interest rates on hold at 0.5%, where they have been since March 2009.
In the minutes of the decision, the Bank reiterated warnings that a Brexit vote could lead to a “materially lower” growth outlook and ramp up inflation as the pound was likely to plunge in value.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Google has opened a new €150m data centre in west Dublin bringing its total investment in capital assets in Ireland to over €750m.

The tech giant, which employs 3,000 people directly and a further 3,000 indirectly here, has increased its staffing levels by over 20pc in the last 12 months.
The new data centre in Clondalkin is the company’s second major data centre investment in Ireland.

Speaking at the opening of the new centre Taoiseach Enda Kenny described it as a “new chapter” in Google’s story in Ireland.
“With the number of people employed by Google now surpassing 6,000, the company is a fantastic leader within Ireland’s digital community.”

The new two storey centre houses computers that run services such as the Google search engine, Gmail and Google Maps.
Google benefits from Ireland’s cool climate by using air condition to keep the computers running at optimum temperature.

Head of Google Ireland Ronan Harris said that the firm has continually invested in Ireland since arriving in 2003.
“Today’s announcement is part of Google’s plan to build the world’s most energy efficient computing network and the work of our engineering team in Dublin is central to this success,” he said.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Banks here are ready for a Brexit, the deputy governor of the Central Bank said.

With just over a week to go until the crucial UK vote, Sharon Donnery said disruption and volatility in the financial markets is the chief short-term risk posed by a possible vote by the UK to withdraw from the EU.
Irish-based banks and finance firms with exposure to the UK have contingency plans in place to deal with the short-term fallout from a British exit from the European Union, the deputy governor said.

Sterling skidded 1pc lower against the dollar yesterday to hit its lowest level in two months, after another poll put the ‘leave’ campaign clearly ahead, and ‘The Sun’ newspaper backed a Brexit.
The UK currency hovered around the 79 pence to the euro mark.

Safe-haven German Bund yields fell below zero for the first time and global equity markets slid for a fourth day running as markets increasingly factor in risks many had expected to fade as polling day approached.
The ISEQ slipped below the 6,000 mark.

Read more: Ireland faces four big issues. Three of them are out of our hands
At the launch of the Central Bank’s Macro Financial Review yesterday, Ms Donnery said volatility in the euro/sterling exchange rate could provide challenges if the UK votes to leave.

“Over longer-time horizons, a negative impact on Irish exports to the UK could be expected,” Ms Donnery said.
“The overall effects on the profitability and business models of Irish-based financial institutions could be material and will vary across firms and sectors.

“The effect will depend on their exposure to UK markets and the nature of the “new relationship” agreed between the United Kingdom and EU.
Ms Donnery said the Central Bank had also been engaging with financial sector firms to assess their preparedness for the risks associated with Brexit.

The bank said the effects on the profitability and business models of financial firms in Ireland, including banks and insurers, could be “material”, and could vary between firms and sectors depending on the nature of the new relationship agreed between the UK and EU and their exposure to UK markets.
Asked if the bank believes that firms are prepared, she said: “I would say that in relation to short term contingency planning for any events that would happen immediately after a referendum, we’d be happy that all contingencies have been prepared for.”

She said officials in Dame Street had been working to prepare for all contingencies.
“Work is in hand in relation to that regardless of what those contingencies might be,” Ms Donnery said.

The latest survey, from market research company TNS, has British support for leaving the EU seven-points ahead, adding to a string of polls that put the Brexit campaign ahead.

Betting markets, in response, raised the chances of the country voting to leave the EU, causing anxiety among investors.
The implied probability of a vote to remain inside the bloc fell to around 60pc yesterday, down almost 20 percentage points from last week, according to Betfair. “It (Brexit risk) is becoming a much broader issue than just sterling weakness,” said RBC Capital Markets strategist Adam Cole.

Meanwhile, the British Irish Chamber of Commerce has unveiled its ‘Brexit Toolkit for Employers’.

The guide looks to set out the implications for trade agreements, business stability and job security.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

The goods trade surplus expanded by more than a fifth in April as exports increased and imports fell.

Preliminary figures for the month, published by the Central Statistics Office, shows that seasonally adjusted goods exports increased by €254m to €9.24bn in the month.
By contrast, goods imports slipped by 11pc to €4.7bn, dragged down by a fall in machinery imports.

This meant that the trade surplus increased €819m, or 22pc, to €4.53bn.
Year-on-year, the value of goods exports slipped 2pc in April compared with the same month last year.

The value of goods exports for the period January to April was €36.44bn, an increase of €770 million when compared with the first four months of last year.
The EU accounted for half of total goods exports in April, of which €1.2bn went to Belgium and around €1bn to Britain.

The USA was the main non-EU destination accounting for €2.42bn of total exports.
The EU accounted for 62pc of the value of goods imports in April, with €1.2bn coming from Britain.

Economists fear the fall-out of a potential vote in the UK to withdraw from the European Union on Ireland’s crucial export sector.
If a so-called Brexit occcurs, sterling is expected to plummet in value, which would have a knock-on effect for Irish exports into the UK market.

There are also wider issues over trade between the two countries.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Brexit, migration, geopolitical tensions and debt. They’re the big issues that are fuelling economic uncertainty, according to the Central Bank’s latest Macro Financial Review.

The scary thing is that of the four issues identified, there’s only one on which we can have any impact – debt.
The first three are external and entirely out of our hands. And that’s a pretty frustrating place to be in.

War and migration need European if not global action.
The most pressing issue here is of course the prospect of a British exit from the EU.

Sharon Donnery, the recently appointed Central Bank deputy governor, stressed that officials in Dame Street are focusing their efforts on preparing to deal with the fallout if it happens.
The Bank is on top of contingency planning and is liaising with businesses and financial firms to ensure they’re prepared for any impact, particularly around currency, she said.

But the bank can do little to stop sterling plummeting should British voters opt to pull out. And in the long-term, how can you plan for an eventuality that has no precedent?
In reality, its efforts will be largely focused by way of the European Central Bank, which is expected to step forward and publicly pledge to backstop financial markets, in line with the Bank of England, should a Brexit occur. Ms Donnery hinted as much yesterday when she talked about the need to provide liquidity.

With so much out of our hands, more needs to be done to deal with the one problem we should be able to get better control over. And that’s our debt.
Public debt, while falling, remains high. And it’s the debt-to-GDP ratio that’s falling, not the debt pile itself. Over-indebtedness in the private sector is also a concern.

It still stands at 240pc of GDP, which is both high by historical and international standards.
High legacy debts make us particularly vulnerable to any external economic shock. We aren’t out of the woods yet.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

The pound weakened to almost 80 pence against the euro and the cost of hedging rose as investors grew more concerned about the outcome of next week’s EU referendum.

It could mean bad news for retail businesses in border areas in the Republic, as shoppers may capitalise on the weaker pound and shop in Northern Ireland.
UK voters head to the polls on Thursday week in a poll that will decide the future of the country in the European Union.

Polls indicate the decision is on a knife edge, with a lead for the remain camp switching to gains for those in favour of a so-called Brexit.
A weakening UK currency is bad news for Irish exporters as it increases their margins.

By late afternoon yesterday, the euro was worth around £0.7889, up from the 76 pence mark it had strengthened to in recent weeks. But earlier in the day it had reached £0.7986.
Investors have grown increasingly jittery, and sterling volatility has increased, as the opinion polls suggest momentum is growing for the leave camp.

“I would expect volatilities to rise further and the markets will become even bleaker as we head towards the referendum,” said Koichi Yoshikawa, executive director of finance at Standard Chartered Bank.
Investors are choosing to put their money into both the US dollar and the Yen, with the pound falling to a three-year low against the Japanese currency.

UKIP leader and Brexit advocate Nigel Farage said the prospect of a fall in the value of the pound is nothing to worry about. Mr Farage said people should not be worried by “ludicrous scare stories”, adding that a weaker pound would benefit UK exporters.
The pound tumbled the most since February on Friday after an ORB/Independent poll showed a 10-point lead for ‘leave’.

Surveys at the weekend were less stark, with one online poll by Opinium for the ‘Observer’ newspaper showing 44pc support for Britain staying in the EU and 42pc against.
Britain’s hefty current account deficit – 7pc of output in the last quarter of 2015 – makes the economy, and the currency, vulnerable to any pull-back in investment flows.

Worries about Brexit have also contributed to the UK economy losing momentum in recent months, and investors have pushed back rate hike expectations to the end of the decade. UBS, a leading foreign exchange player, said there were signs that growth may slow further in the second quarter and some policymakers on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee could consider rate cuts.
Meanwhile, research conducted by the ESRI found that Ireland and the UK are perceived to be similar as alternative locations for FDI in particular by investors from outside the EU and for FDI in the services sector.

“This result suggests that a possible redirection of FDI from the UK to Ireland in the case of Brexit would be more likely by investors from outside the EU and in the services sector,” said Dr Iulia Siedschlag, ESRI associate research professor.
But the report warned that a more competitive tax rate in the UK would hinder Ireland’s ability to attract foreign direct investment. The research said that a reduction in the UK’s corporate tax rate by 1 percentage point, from 20pc to 19pc, would reduce Ireland’s attractiveness to new FDI projects from non-EU countries by 4.3pc. (Additional reporting agencies)

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42

Annual growth of 7.7% in year to March 2016 sees Ireland outpace growth in Germany, Netherlands and Canada

Irish house price growth may have stalled of late, but new figures show that Ireland was nonetheless one of the fastest growing markets in the world in the year to March 2016.

According to figures from the Global Property Guide, a price increase of 7.74 per cent in the year to March 2016 saw Ireland take its place as the sixth fastest growing market in the world behind Turkey (Istanbul 19.05%); China (Shanghai 16.64%); Sweden (12.1%); Romania (11.55%) and Qatar (9.27%). Ireland, the report says, is “reaping the benefits” of the structural reforms it introduced early in the crisis.

Pointing to Turkey’s rapid growth, the report notes that its housing market was boosted by strong foreign investment and growing population, “despite a collapsing currency, dissatisfaction with the government, chaos on Turkey’s doorstep in Syria and Kurdish Iraq, and rising internal tensions”. Sweden’s market grew strongly on the back of “robust economic growth, the central bank’s negative interest rates and a shortage of housing supply”. Across Europe, house price growth was strong, with house prices risubg in 18 of the 22 European housing markets for which figures were available during the year to Q1 2016, one of the highest numbers recorded since the global financial crisis.

On a quarterly basis, Irish house prices dropped slightly by 0.12 per cent in the first quarter of 2016, compared with growth of 0.87 per cent in the UK, 1.95 per cent in Germany and 2.37 per cent in Sweden.

The biggest year on year house price declines in the first quarter were seen in Russia (-13.04%); Mongolia (-11.93%); Puerto Rico (-10.33%); Hong Kong (-9.91%); Egypt (-9.49%); and UAE (-9.26%).

Meanwhile house price growth in the capital has rebounded in the first four months of 2016, figures from Savills show, with price growth up from 2.6 per cent to 4.6 per cent in the first four months of 2016.

“As we predicted, the mortgage rules have proved to be more a bump in the road than a lasting barrier to house price growth. If you freeze people out of buying their own homes they have to rent. This just inflates rents and attracts investors who drive up prices by competing for properties,”Savills Director of Research John McCartney said.

Looking ahead McCartney said that Dublin price growth will accelerate to 5.5 per cent by mid-year due to continued investor activity and base effects.

Article Source: http://tinyurl.com/kbwqb42