Buyers, specifically first-time buyers, are getting shafted, as tighter credit conditions and 2005-level house prices push them out in favour of the cash buyer, the institutional investor, or the punter from the rest of the world looking for a decent rental yield in this low inflation, low interest rate, low yield world we now inhabit on this side of Europe.
Those on the sell side of the property market outside of Dublin also fare badly, as house price inflation is a mere 3.5pc there.
The increases are coming from a lack of supply. Standard economics tell you that these price increases will encourage more people to come back into the market, getting their house on the line so they can trade up, trade down, pay off debts, and so forth, and this increase in supply should help to moderate any further price increases. But this standard view ignores just how indebted many households are – the prices being talked about are still not high enough to repair the damage done to balance sheets by the global financial crisis. The view also ignores how strained credit conditions are in the economy at the moment. Only €539m of new mortgage lending took place from January to March of 2014. The prices are driven by a market lacking the key ingredient for adequate price discovery – liquidity. Read more